Betting Tips: Who will win the 2017 Melbourne Cup?

Melbourne Cup Betting Tips to Help You Find This Year’s Winner

The Melbourne Cup is just a week away and the final field of 24 will be known on Saturday. Little change is expected amongst those in the top of the list for the $2.6 million race.

British racer, Wall Of Fire, representing British trainer Hugo Palmer, sits 24 in the current ballot and is set to carry 53kg. The five year old, who looks certain to get a run, sits sixth in the Melbourne Cup betting at $13.

He may be winless in his last six starts since victory in a 1m 6f handicap last September, but his fast finishing runner-up spot in the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield in mid-October saw him go into many notebooks. Craig Williams takes the ride.

No less than nine of the field are likely to represent the UK & Ireland albeit Nakeeta, No. 23 on the current list, is very unique as he is trained in Scotland.

Nakeeta’s trainer Iain Jardine has been quoted by UK newspaper, the Racing Post, as saying: “It’s a massive relief this morning to finally know you are going to get a run. It would have been a crying shame if we’d come all this way and not got a run. I am chuffed to bits and the horse is in the form of his life”.

Presumably that means the seven-year-old is capable of bettering the form which saw him take the 19 runner Ebor handicap when last seen in competitive action in late August. Most certainly big-race jockey Glyn Schofield will be hoping so.

While over a third of the field will be trained in the UK or Ireland it must be noted that just two Melbourne Cup winners have hailed from Ireland (Media Puzzle in 2002 being the last) and no winner has ever come from the UK despite almost 100 attempts.

Another interesting factor is the lack of European jockeys booked for a ride in the big race. Frankie Dettori may have snagged the ride on Hartnell but, beyond this, only Frenchman Olivier Peslier features amongst the list of European jockeys due to race. Even Ryan Moore, the chosen rider of the Irish powerhouse Coolmore and successful in the 2014 Melbourne Cup on Perfectionist, is without a ride.

Thomas Hobson, trained by champion Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins has Joao Moreira booked. Twenty sixth on the entry list, he needs two horses to drop out of the race before being assured a place in the line-up.

Of course who runs and who doesn’t is only a bit part in the main story which is “who will win the Melbourne Cup?” and the next stage of the ballot is only a small part of the bigger imponderable which is the all-important barrier draw.

In the history of the race – which dates back to 1861 – horses starting in Barriers 15 and 18 have won the race just once. That’s probably not a stat to get too heavily wrapped-up in, it is a simple anomaly.

However, those history books do show Barrier 11 is the most successful producing seven Melbourne Cup winners. Barriers 5, 10 and 14 each given us six winners apiece. In fact there is overwhelming evidence to support the theory that a high Melbourne Cup draw is a handicap akin to a few kilos in weight. That makes Almandin’s victory from Barrier 17 twelve months ago all the more impressive.

A 1000 metre straight run before the 24-runner field has to negotiate a turn should theoretically allow all horses to attain a good position but wide-drawn runners invariably use up too much energy in doing so.

And so, when placing your bet on the 2017 Melbourne Cup do consider 21 of the past 34 Melbourne Cup winners have been drawn in Barrier 11 or lower.

Betting Tips for Melbourne Cup