The second place Western Sydney Wanderers will have a chance to move clear of the chasing pack when they host Perth Glory on Sunday. The Wanderers are a game ahead of the teams either side of them, so they’ll know the importance of 3 points over a Perth side that struggle on their travels.
Perth have dropped 15 of their last 22 games on their travels, whilst the hosts got back on track with a 1-0 win over Sydney last week. The win came on the back of being yet another victim of the improving Phoenix, their first home loss of 2014 after only losing once here in 2013.
Despite Western Sydney’s brief A-League history, the sides have met on 3 occasions already, with Perth struggling to create much in all 3 meetings to my memory. The Wanderers took a 1-0 win in the only meeting here, and also 1-0 and 1-1 results on the road.
Despite all of the above though, bookmakers continue to overlook a few obvious facts.
We bet the Glory +0.5 against the league leaders last weekend. It made for a pretty straight forward winning bet, and the Glory probably deserved the 3 points they couldn’t manage in a 0-0 draw.
Kenny Lowe has taken his side on a mini unbeaten run since taking over, having also knocked off Newcastle and Melbourne (Heart).
On top of all of that they’ve won the signature of former A-League Rostyn Griffiths, who upon leaving left for the (still) largest transfer fee paid for an A-League player. The International midfielder is a little closer to home in the build up to the World Cup now, and he’s bound to have an immediate effect, having spent the past two weeks training with the Glory.
I can understand the obvious favourites tag of the Wanderers here, but as someone who has spent years professionally betting a small market league like MLS (amongst other things of course), I understand how bookmakers can be ignorant and slow to adjust to changes in a league such as the A-League.
For me this handicap is perhaps based more on the season as a whole and general expectation, rather than the form of both sides lately, because there’s no way Wanderers are 2 clear goals better than this Perth team under Lowe right now, and considering WSW have won just 1 time in 5 attempts.
Despite the poor away form we mentioned, the Glory has only dropped a game by 2 clear goals on 4 occasions in their previous 34 A-League away games.
The Wanderers have only pulled off such a clear cut win 3 times in their A-League home history themselves, so I don’t see why the handicap is anything other than 0.75 and still tightly priced here.
Our bet for this game will be Perth Glory +1AH at 1.85 with Pinnacle.
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