The A-League Grand Final will be played on Sunday, 17th May at AAMI Park in Melbourne. Home advantage could be key in the game, but Sydney has a fantastic away record and remains unbeaten this season.
Melbourne are favourites at 2.25 with William Hill, going as low as 2.1 with Stan James. The draw is available at 3.60 with Bet Victor and the visitors Sydney can be backed at 3.25 with Bet Victor.
Despite this being such a huge occasion and being played on Melbourne territory, I have to wonder if they should be favourites to win this game. Sydney have always found a way to pick up results on the road, and whilst I wouldn’t suggest backing the draw, these two sides are such competitive sides that extra time is a possibility.
Just one of the last four Grand Finals have been won by the home side in 90 minutes, and that took a red card followed by a 97th minute penalty from Besart Berisha.
The major weakness I see in the home side is the goalkeeping department. They may have put three past City, but they won’t have the luxury of a walkover here. This’ll be a tight game likely decided by a single goal, and goalkeepers could play a part. Sydney has a decisive advantage there.
Despite obviously having a fantastic talent going forward, Sydney look very soft at the back. Their lack of pace leaves them looking vulnerable when they go forward, and Melbourne can expose that.
Despite losing just once in 14 games, the regular season runners up have conceded 21 goals. That’s quite an unusual stat, when you consider that’s 1.5 goals against per game. It further demonstrates their attacking strength when you consider they’ve won 11 of those 14, but again, I believe the Victory will get a lot of chances.
The only side who can rival the away record of Sydney is their hosts, but unfortunately for them, they haven’t looked quite as convincing at home during the second half of the season.
They’ve been beaten by the likes of Perth, Newcastle and Wellington, failing to beat Perth on a separate occasion. Whilst those are reasonably good teams for the most part, we have to look for the smallest edge in such a game.
The teams are fairly well matched in the head to head department, with a win apiece and two draws in their last four games here. Interestingly, the sides have won six each and drawn the remainder of their last 22 matches.
On the day I think the side that have no fear of going in to this situation will come out on top. Melbourne have all the pressure on them as the home side and a loud crowd can sometimes go against you.
Sydney have nothing at all to lose, yet they have complete confidence they can’t be beaten on the road.
Back Sydney to lift the trophy at 2.25 with William Hill