AUSSIE FREE BET Horse Racing BETTING BLOG
The Derby Horse Race Betting Tips
The Derby is one of the biggest, most highly anticipated horse races of the year. Held at Epsom, a town to the south of London, the derby pits together some of the most exciting young horses around and there are a couple of Australian connections in the 2017 renewal.
There’s a big prize on offer for winning connections and money to be made for anybody who calls the outcome correctly so let’s see if we can pick a winner.
Horse racing has a long and rich history and the Derby is no different. The idea for the race came at a party all the way back in 1979 and was named after the host, the 12th Earl of Derby. Since then the distance has been tweaked slightly but it’s always been held at Epsom Down other than during the two World Wars.
The Derby is now the third British classic of the season. Like the 2000 Guineas which was held a couple of weeks ago, the Derby is open only to three-year-old colts. The Derby, however, is run over one and a half miles which means it presents a considerably different challenge.
This is not a race for out and out sprinters. Winners of the Derby must have a certain amount of staying ability to get the trip and there are a number of key stats and trends that help profile the ‘perfect’ Derby winner.
Past Five Winners
2016 – Harzand, ridden by Pat Smullen, trained by Dermot Weld
2015 – Golden Horn, ridden by Frankie Dettori, trained by John Gosden
2014 – Australia, ridden by Joseph O’Brien, trained by Aidan O’Brien
2013 – Ruler Of The World, ridden by Ryan Moore, trained by Aidan O’Brien
2012 – Camelot, ridden by Joseph O’Brien, trained by Aidan O’Brien
Key Trends to Consider
The first element of the Derby to consider when picking a winner is the price. Traditionally, this is a race at which favourites tend to do well.
None of the last 12 winners of the Derby came from outside the top three in the betting. Moreover, three of the last five winners were the bookies’ favourites, each of whom had an official rating of at least 118.
While very few horses in the Derby have any previous experience of Epsom Downs, the winners of the race tend to have shown plenty of strong form before. 90% of recent winners travelled to Epsom with at least two previous wins including a win at Group level.
Finally, it is rare to find a winner of the Derby who has even attempted racing over one and a half miles, let alone won at the distance.
The stats suggest that we should be concentrating our attentions on the top three in the betting and that certainly looks to be a sensible play for this year’s renewal.
Currently, Cliffs Of Moher and Cracksman are fighting it out for favouritism at around $4.5 each. You can make a solid case for those two but the one that most catches the eye is the third favourite, Eminent.
Martyn Meade’s colt has only made three previous appearances but each of them offered some positives for his connections. He won on debut, claimed victory in the Group 3 Craven Stakes in blistering fashion and his sixth place at the 2000 Guineas was about as good as could be expected given he’s bread for middle distances.
At a best price of $8 with Sportsbet, Eminent really does look very good betting value.
In terms of an each-way betting prospect, Aidan O’Brien’s Capri is one to keep an eye on. The grey will have to be well drawn but having been gradually stepped up in trip, with Group wins under his belt and favourable ground, the $12 that Bet365 are quoting looks too big to ignore.
Top Betting Tip:
Eminent to win at $8 with Sportsbet
Each-Way Betting Tips:
Capri each-way at $12 with Bet365