AFL Preliminary Finals Betting Tips – 21st and 22nd September 2018
Four teams remain in the hunt for the biggest prize in Australian rules football – Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast and Melbourne. They’ll be whittled down to just two this weekend but who will make it to the MCG on September 29th?
Here is our take on the two fascinating matches ahead in our AFL preliminary finals betting tips.
Richmond v Collingwood
Richmond and Collingwood have had some epic encounters over the years but this is the first time that the two AFL powerhouses have met in the finals for 38 years. That meeting was the 1980 AFL Grand Final when the Tigers romped home to an 81 point win and the it’s the reigning premiers who are the heavy favorites with the bookies.
Ever since winning their 11th flag against Adelaide last season, the Tigers have shown a real level of confidence in their belief that they are the best team in the AFL.
Damien Hardwick’s men certainly used that belief to come from behind a number of times to beat Collingwood 113 – 70 in Round 6. The Tigers then came on strong late again in Round 19 to win 105 – 77.
It’s that ability to kick big goals in the final quarter that should set the Tigers apart and see them through to the 2018 AFL Grand Final.
The Pies have so far managed to limp through the final with a string of injury problems. Nobody can question the desire and work rate of Nathan Lyon’s men but it’s surely going to come to an end in front of a bumper crowd at the MCG.
The best chance that the Pies have of progressing is by winning the midfield battle. The likes of Adam Treloar, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom will ensure they are competitive for large portions of the game but, like in the meetings in the home-and-away season, we expect Richmond to come on strong late on.
That leads us to a couple of betting tips.
The first is on Richmond to win by 1-39 points at $2.02 with Palmerbet. The second is more risk but a play on the Collingwood/Richmond half time/full time selection could return nicely at $6.50 with bet365.
West Coast Eagles v Melbourne
Melbourne are the only team left in the finals who finished outside of the top four in the AFL ladder. Coming outside of the top four guaranteed that the Demons would have a tough route through to a potential AFL Grand Final.
The Dees have made things look fairly easy though with a 75-46 win over the Geelong Cats before last weekend’s 104-71 win against the Hawthorn Hawks.
The West Coast Eagles will provide the Demons’ toughest test of the finals so far but Simon Goodwin and his players will not be fearful following their win over the Eagles in Round 22.
The main difference between that match and Saturday’s preliminary final is that the Eagles will be able to call on both Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling. The pair are arguably the most important players in the Eagles’ team and their return is surely one reason that they’re the $1.82 favorites with TopBetta.
We don’t see this match being as one sided as that.
The Melbourne coaching staff will need to make running repairs to ensure their key players are fit for Saturday night’s trip to Optus Stadium but it is impossible to put a value on the momentum they’ve gained in the finals so far.
It’s going to be tight but we believe Melbourne have enough to take another huge step forward and a place in the Grand Final so back the Demons to win by 1-39 points at $2.50 with Pointsbet.