AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
Richmond v Hawthorn Preview
Richmond and Hawthorn are two of the biggest teams in the AFL but Thursday’s match at the MCG is their first meeting in the finals.
Fresh of securing the minor premiership and having beaten Hawthorn at the MCG in Round 3, the Tigers are rightly feeling confident about their chances. The bookies also feel as though this is going to go well for Damien Hardwick’s men as the Tigers are the clear favourites at $1.41 with Palmerbet.
The main cause for concern for Richmond fans is their team’s relatively poor end to the home-and-away season. Yes, the team is good enough to suggest they’ll be much better now that it really counts but you cannot afford to write the Hawks off.
Richmond deserve to be favourites but is $1.41 a fair price? We’re not so sure and therefore recommend betting on Hawthorn +11.5 points at $2.25 with TopBetta.
Melbourne v Geelong Preview
There are no easy matches in the finals but Melbourne’s match against Geelong looks to be particularly close. The bookies have only tentatively called this one for the Demons but at a best price of $2.15 with bet365 the Cats have certainly not been written off.
Both teams head into the finals on the back of some strong form. The Demons got the better of two of their fellow top eight teams when beating West Coast and Greater Western Sydney while the Cats did their confidence the power of good with two wins of 100+ points against Fremantle and Gold Coast.
Geelong won both matches in the home-and-away season. That doesn’t quite tell the full story of the Round 1 and 18 matches which the Cats won by three and two points respectively. It’ll likely be just as close as this is the first elimination final so we like the $1.93 that bet365 are quoting on Geelong +4.5 points.
Sydney Swans v Greater Western Sydney Preview
It’s only one week, but the break between the end of the home-and-away season and the start of the finals has been exactly what Sydney Swans and Greater Western Sydney needed. It’s allowed some of the most important players on both sides to get fit for their elimination final and should ensure this Sydney derby is even more fiercely contested.
You’ll hear a lot of pundits talk about the importance of momentum heading into the finals. That could be where the Giants come unstuck.
They worked very hard to overcome a poor start to the season but the danger is that they threw it all away with some slack recent performances including their Round 22 defeat against the Swans.
The Giants won’t go down without a fight but we think the bookies have called this one correctly and recommend a bet on the Sydney Swans at $1.72 with Betstar.
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood Preview
You’d have received a nice payout if you’d bet on West Coast Eagles and Collingwood both securing a place in the finals at the start of the season. The two outsiders went better than that and made it into the top four but now is not the time to reflect on the season.
There’s just one match separating the Eagles and the Magpies from a preliminary final so you can be sure they’ll both give it their all at Optus Stadium on Saturday.
West Coast got the job done when these two met in Round 17 but the win at the MCG came at a cost with Nic Naitanui being ruled out for the season. His continued absence is an issue for the Eagles but they’ve coped well enough without him so far and we think they’ll be able to book their place in the preliminary final by beating Collingwood by between 1-24 points at $3.10 with Neds.
AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
Hawthorn +11.5 points against Richmond at $2.25 with TopBetta
Geelong +4.5 points against Melbourne at $1.93 with bet365
Sydney Swans to beat Greater Western Sydney at $1.72 with Betstar
West Coast Eagles to beat Collingwood between 1-24 points at $3.10 with Neds