AFL Betting Offers and Tips - Aussie Betting Blog
The regular AFL season is now over and we know the eight teams who will be competing in the finals.
The huge matches get underway this weekend. Thursday and Friday see the top four in the ladder face off in two qualifying finals before Saturday’s two elimination finals.
It’s those elimination finals that we will be focussing on as we seek to find some winning bets from the games at the SCG and Adelaide Oval.
Port Adelaide v West Coast
Port Adelaide are a best price of $1.47 with Luxbet for the first elimination final.
That’s thanks to the Power’s home advantage and the fact that they finished eight points clear of the West Coast Eagles who have been priced at $2.76 with Palmerbet.
The Power would certainly prefer to be playing at the Adelaide Oval in front of their own fans but that didn’t help them when these two met in Round 7.
West Coast came out on top by 10 points that day although Port Adelaide got revenge in a fairly comfortable win at Domain Stadium in Round 16. Moreover, West Coast have won five of their last six matches at Adelaide Oval.
It usually helps to arrive at the finals in a good run of form and in that regard, the Power will be happy to have won three in a row. Then again, the dramatic way that the Eagles squeezed past Melbourne thanks to a phenomenal win over Adelaide in the final day of the regular season will give Adam Simpson’s men reason to puff their chests out.
Despite what the odds suggest, a confident West Coast could be too much for Port Adelaide.
The Power will go down as the AFL’s biggest flat track bullies this season given that their Round 16 victory was the only time they managed to get the better of any of their fellow top eight teams.
We think this will be close but just favour betting on West Coast at that $2.76 with Palmerbet.
The history of the finals includes some surprise wins against the odds and Essendon are hopeful of another one against the Swans.
The bookies make Sydney the firmest of favourites at a best price of $1.20 with Bet365 and it is easy to see why.
For a start, you have to go all the way back to 2011 for the last time that the Bombers got the better of Saturday’s opponents. Then there’s the Swans very strong end to the season in which John Longmire’s men lost just two of their last 16 games.
Sydney Swans needed that strong end to the season after opening up with a horror run of form. The way that Longmire has taken his team from 0-6 to the finals has made him a contender for coach of the year but he is no mood to stop now.
The Swans’ turnaround has already made history and they are now targeting a repeat of the Western Bulldogs’ four straight finals victories to win the premiership.
Essendon head coach, John Worsfold, knows the size of the task facing his team but he can at least take heart from their Round 14 clash with the Swans at the SCG. The Bombers were distraught to miss lose by a single point at the time but it did at least show they’ve got the game to trouble Saturday’s opponents.
We think that the Swans will get the job done but not by the sort of margin that many are predicting.
Not only can the Bombers make improvements to the game plan that nearly worked in Round 14, but they will be fired up by the chance at redemption against a side who has routinely beaten them.
Quality will tell but a bet on Essendon +29.5 points should pay off at $2.02 with Unibet.
If you’re looking for a bigger yield from a tight game, it could also be worth betting on Sydney Swans to win by 1-19 points at $4.50 with Centrebet.
Top Betting Tips:
West Coast to beat Port Adelaide at $2.76 with Palmerbet
Essendon +29.5 points against Sydney Swans at $2.02 with Unibet
Sydney Swans to beat Essendon by 1-19 points at $4.50 with Centrebet